A Donald Trump presidency would be as big a global risk as the rising threat of jihadi terrorism, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.
In a list released Thursday, the research team also suggested Trump’s rhetoric toward the Middle East will in itself raise the jihadi menace.
“His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East and ban on all Muslim travel to the US would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups,” the EIU said in its global risk assessment.
The research firm says Trump’s hostile attitude toward free trade could also prove a worldwide issue.
“In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war,” the report said.
The EIU ranking combines impact and probability on a scale rating of 1 to 25, with a Trump presidency scoring a rating of 12.
However, more dangerous events listed include China experiencing a hard landing and a breakdown of the European Union.
The top 10 risks with their scores, are:
- China experiences a hard landing. Score = 20
- Russia’s interventions in Ukraine and Syria trigger start of new “cold war.” Score = 16
- Currency volatility culminates in an emerging markets corporate debt crisis. Score = 16
- Beset by external and internal pressures, the EU begins to fracture. Score = 15
- “Grexit” is followed by a euro zone break-up. Score = 15
- Donald Trump wins the US presidential election. Score = 12
- The rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilises the global economy. Score = 12
- The UK votes to leave the EU. Score = 8
- Chinese expansionism prompts a clash of arms in the South China Sea. Score = 8
- A collapse in investment in the oil sector prompts a future oil price shock. Score = 4
The research paper concludes that it doesn’t expect Trump to defeat Hillary Clinton in the race to become the next president.
But it suggests a turn of events that could put Trump in the White House.
“There are risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn,” the report reads.
Meanwhile the Kremlin hit out Thursday at a campaign video promoting Trump, suggesting the video demonized Russia’s image.
The clip in question shows Clinton barking like a dog while Putin throws an opponent in a judo bout.
“I saw this clip. I do not know for sure if Vladimir Putin saw it. But our attitude is negative,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told a teleconference, according to Reuters.
Peskov said negative comments from U.S. politicians were nothing new.
“It’s an open secret for us that demonizing Russia and whatever is linked to Russia is unfortunately a mandatory hallmark of America’s election campaign,” he said
Correction: An earlier version misspelled Hillary Clinton’s first name.
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