The week ahead in business and finance

Economic and corporate news expected from Monday, November 23, to Friday,
November 27.


Outsourcing group MITIE has enjoyed a solid start to the year, and it
is poised to deliver good full-year organic revenue growth when it publishes
its half-year results today. In September, the management service provider
said trading was in line with expectations, with consensus estimates for the
year pointing to sales of £2.4bn and pre-tax profit of £117.6m.

The facilities management division, which accounts for 84pc of anticipated
revenue, is performing robustly, although trading it the homecare market is
challenging. Nonetheless, the group’s performance is generally weighted to
the second half of the year and while, investors may expect further momentum
in the near-term, MITIE has already secured 94pc of its budgeted revenues
for the year.

Earlier this year, the company described the new National Living Wage as a
“welcome move” by the government and one which will help it retain talent.
Christopher Bamberry, of Peel Hunt, said: “MITIE is confident that the
contractual positions it has will ensure that the introduction of the
National Living Wage will not have a material impact on future earnings.”

Interim Results: Trakm8 Holdings (LSE: TRAK.Lnews) , MITIE, Kainos, Bonmarche Holdings (LSE: BON.Lnews) ,
Sacoil Holdings

AGM: Just Retirement Group, Goldenport Holdings (LSE: GPRT.Lnews) , Mirada


Mid-cap real estate group Shaftesbury (Stuttgart: OVW.SGnews) is expected to beat consensus
forecasts tomorrow when it posts its full-year results thanks to a raft of
strong half-year earnings across the sector. With (Other OTC: WWTHnews) a portfolio of prime
central London locations in Carnaby Street and Covent Garden, the group is
exposed to both domestic and overseas consumers, and as it’s currently
trading at a 4pc premium to the sectors, analysts believe it could smash its
pre-tax forecast of £38.9m.

This summer the FTSE 250 firm boasted of buoyant trading in shops, bars and
restaurants. Sue Munden, of Panmure Gordon, said new lettings in the first
half of the year were struck at rents 10pc higher than estimated, signalling
strong rental growth.

While Shaftesbury has two major developments underway in Chinatown and
Broadwick Street in London, investors will remain focused on Crossrail,
which has been described by analysts as a “game changer” for the company.
Its portfolio is set to benefit from Crossrail when it arrives in 2018 as it
is all in walking distance to the station, which is expected to see up to
300,000 passengers per day.

Interim Results: AO World (Other OTC: AOWDFnews) , Creston (Other OTC: CLEZFnews) , Signet Jewelers (Stuttgart: SZ2.SGnews) , CML Microsystems (LSE: CML.Lnews) ,
De La Rue (Other OTC: DELRFnews) , Babcock International Group, Severfield (LSE: SFR.Lnews) , Pets At Home (LSE: PETS.Lnews)

Final Results: Mitchells & Butlers (LSE: MAB.Lnews) , Renew Holdings (LSE: RNWH.Lnews) , Shaftesbury,
Paragon Group of Companies, Greencore Group (LSE: GNC.Lnews) , Compass Group (Other OTC: CMPGFnews)

AGMs: Vinaland, Strat Aero (LSE: AERO.Lnews) , Avanti Communications (LSE: AVN.Lnews) , Dunelm Group (LSE: DNLM.Lnews)

Trading updates: Kingfisher (LSE: KGF.Lnews) , Intertek Group (Other OTC: IKTSFnews) , Cineworld

Economics: IFO Business Climate (GER), IFO Current Assessment (GER),
IFO Expectations (GER), Durable Goods Orders (US), GDP Preliminary (US),
Consumer Confidence (US), CBI Distributive Trade Surveys (UK)


The Russian plane crash at the end of October in Egypt, which resulted in the
suspension of flights to the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, is expected
to hurt Thomas Cook (Xetra: A0MR3Wnews) ’s full-year results on Wednesday. While the
tour operator kept its full-year growth expectations unchanged, analysts
said the move to cancel holidays to the popular holiday resort following the
airplane crash could result in a £15m underlying hit to profits.

Financial uncertainty in Greece and the attack in Tunisia earlier this year
have already weighed on earnings. David Madden, an IG (LSE: IGG.Lnews) analyst, said: “The
travel industry had a number of setbacks this year, and to make matters
worse for Thomas Cook, adverse currency movements will also dent the annual

Last week, shares in the company slumped in the wake of the attacks in Paris.
However, while the stock has impacted by recent terrorist activity, analysts
believe it is now priced into its valuation. Pre-tax profits of £163m are
anticipated, with earnings per share expected to come in at 9.3p.

Interim Results: United Utilities Group, RPC Group (LSE: RPC.Lnews) , Betfair Group (LSE: BET.Lnews) , Hogg
Robinson Group, TR Property Investment Trust, VP

Final Results: Britvic (Stuttgart: B6S.SGnews) , Daily Mail & General Trust, Thomas Cook

AGMs: F&C UK Real Estate Investments, Oilex (LSE: OEX.Lnews) , Mysale Group (Stuttgart: 2MY.SGnews) , Finsbury
Food Group

Economics: MBA Mortgage Applications (US), Personal Consumption
Expenditures (US), Personal Income (US), Personal Spending (US), House Price
Index (US), New Homes Sales (US), Crude Oil Inventories (US), BBA Mortgage
Lending Figures (UK), Chancellor Statement (UK)


An acceleration in earnings growth and a slowdown in disposals will see pub
operator Marston’s deliver a set of full-year results in line
with expectations. Pre-tax profits for the second half of the year are set
to rise by 14pc buoyed by the success of its acquisition of Thwaites’
brewing business, which has helped brewing volumes climb 15pc.

Last month, Ralph Findlay, chief executive, said the acquisition means the
group is now well placed to exploit growth in premium and craft beers. New (KOSDAQ: 160550.KQnews)
pub-restaurants, premium pubs and lodges are all anticipated to have enjoyed
a robust performance this year.

Although a number of other pub operators have been writing down asset values,
Douglas Jack, of Numis, noted: “Marston’s last estate revaluation was
announced at the interim results and resulted in a positive net revaluation
surplus of £54m.”

Interim Results: Torotrak (LSE: TRK.Lnews) , Charles Stanley Group, Severn Trent (Other OTC: STRNYnews) , First
Property Group, PayPoint (LSE: PAY.Lnews) , LondonMetric Property (LSE: LMP.Lnews) , Arrow Global Group, Helical
Bar, Hornby (Berlin: 1878572.BEnews)

Final Results: SSP Group (LSE: SSPG.Lnews) , Marston’s

AGMs: Jsc Kazmunaigas Exploration Production, Invista European Real
Estate Trust, Thor Mining (LSE: THR.Lnews)

Trading Statement: Anglo Pacific Group

Economics: M3 Money Supply (EU), Continuing Claims (US), Initial
Jobless Claims (US)


Birmingham-based Patisserie Holdings (LSE: CAKE.Lnews) will publish its second set of
full-year results on Friday since listing on Aim last year. The upmarket
café and cake chain should see sales improve across its fleet of 156 stores,
while it continues to grow its estate.

With a target of opening 20 new stores this year, the group said trading
should be in line with sales expectations of £96.6m and earnings before
interest tax and depreciation of £17.9m. Chief executive Luke Johnson
already boasted about the success of new trailed products including an
afternoon tea, and investors will be hoping for an update on how its
seasonal menus have been received.

The tie-up with Debenhams (Other OTC: DBHSFnews) was also highlighted by Ali Naqvi, of Peel Hunt, as
a move which shows “management’s flexibility in picking sites”, even though
they will generate lower revenues.

Interim Results: Pennon Group (Other OTC: PEGRFnews) , Real Estate Credit Investments

Final Results: Patisserie Holdings, Future

AGMs: Wildhorse Energy (LSE: WHE.Lnews) , Forte Energy NL (LSE: FTE.Lnews) , Draganfly Investments, Pan
African Resources, Range Resources (Stuttgart: RAX.SGnews) , Harvest Minerals Limited (LSE: HMI.Lnews) , Filtronic

Economics: Business Climate Indicator (EU), Economic Sentiment
Indicator (EU), GFK Consumer Confidence (UK), Consumer Confidence (UK), GDP
(output, income & expenditure) (UK), Index of Services (UK)


The scene has been set for George Osborne’s Autumn Statment and Spending
review this week. The Chancellor has agreed deep spending cuts with all
Whitehall departments, but as he grapples with a deficit that is falling
much more slowly than expected, analysts are speculating what else is in the
firing line as he scrambles to fill a £4.4bn hole left by a rejection of tax
credit reforms. What’s clear is that Mr Osborne will deploy Plan A this week
to balance the books by the end of the decade, with “A” standing very much
for austerity.

Friday’s growth figures are expected to confirm the UK economy expanded by
0.5pc in the third quarter, driven by consumer spending as net trade exerted
a significant drag on output. Meanwhile, Mark Carney, the Governor of the
Bank of England, faces a grilling by MPs this week on the Bank’s latest
Inflation Report. The report signalled this month that interest rates were
likely to remain lower for longer as the impact of falling commodity prices
continues to push down on inflation.

However, Mr Carney is expected to stress that the Bank’s job is to bring
inflation back to target in a “sustainable” way, without an overshoot of the
Bank’s 2pc target. This means rates could rise before current market
expectations for the beginning of 2017.

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